The festival opener, the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, has an extremely open look to it this year. There is no outstanding candidate this time around and current favourite Darlan is priced more by reputation at 11/2 than what he has achieved on the racetrack.

Midnight Game had been very impressive when steaming past Dylan Ross last time out, but his trainer has been dissatisfied by his recent work and his intended partner, Davy Russell, now opts for Trifolium instead. At 12/1 the latter now rates as an attractive bet, but the real value could lie with the aforementioned Dylan Ross.

His seasonal form figures of 12222 point to a high level of consistency, but his detractors will also say they highlight a questionable attitude. While this may be the case, it could prove that what he really needs is a championship pace to come off. He has travelled supremely through his races, without always quite being able to accelerate past in the final few hundred yards. In this respect he is reminiscent of past festival winners Forpaddydeplasterer and Sizing Europe. Those horses often proved frustrating to follow during the winter months in small runner affairs in Ireland, but came alive in Prestbury Park with good ground and a strong pace.

It may well be that Dylan Ross is soft in a battle and just not quite up to the top level, but he has been seriously underestimated at 40/1 considering a line through Sous Les Cieux suggests he could have the beating of third favourite Galileo’s Choice.

In the Arkle, Sprinter Sacre hasn’t put a foot wrong all season – but still looks short enough in the betting at around 10/11. Last year he faded badly behind Al Ferof coming up the hill, and although the move to larger obstacles and a subsequent breathing operation may turn that form around, it may be safer to stick with his past conqueror. Ruby Walsh’s mount ran a fine race in third behind Somersby in an Ascot Grade One last time out, is sure to be suited by a fast pace and will love the return to the course.

Sprinter Sacre may prove to be as good as the hype suggests (Barry Geraghty compared him favourably to the great Moscow Flyer recently), but the last time we saw him come under pressure he wilted and no amount of facile victories in the mean time can compensate for that given his short price. He often pulls hard, and it may be that he won’t leave himself enough energy to get up the hill. It is noteworthy that all his winning has been done on flat tracks.

Hurricane Fly looks bomb-proof in the Champion Hurdle, but not everyone will be keen to wade in on a 10/11 shot. A better betting proposition may be his stable companion Zaidpour.

The six-year-old has enjoyed an unbeaten if low-key season, taking four soft ground victories over a variety of trips in Ireland – including a hat-trick of Grade Twos.

Trainer Willie Mullins reported that the gelding lost his action in the second part of last season, and his low-key preparation has given the horse the time and confidence he has needed to come back to his best. While he would prefer softer ground and a longer trip, he is far less exposed than some of his rivals and he fits in with the profile of many recent winners. His form cannot compare with Hurricane Fly, but there is no reason why he can’t grab a place if they go off quick enough. Given he is rated the same as Oscar Wells, there is no reason why he should be almost treble the price at 33/1.

Elsewhere on the card, the closing race may go the way of the Irish as well in the shape of Jim Dreaper’s runner, Harspsy Cord. The six-year-old is far less exposed than most of the runners with only seven runs under his belt, and his owner Alan Potts rarely sends runners to Cheltenham unless they strong place claims at least.

The last time he encountered ground this good he ran as if something was amiss, but his sire Accordion has a good record at the festival and there is every chance he will improve over fences after building on his second behind Soll with a gutsy victory in Gowran.

Selections:

Dylan Ross 1 pt e/w @ 40/1 best priced

Al Ferof 2 pts win @ 10/3 best priced

Zaidpour 1 pt e/w @ 33/1 generally

Harpsy Cord 1 pt win @ 25/1 best priced

Last week’s rumours proved accurate as Willie Mullins declared himself unsatisfied with last year’s Champion Hurdle victor, leaving Thousand Stars as the yard’s only hope.
While that horse doesn’t have quite the reputation of his stable mate, he has stepped up on last year’s fine placed efforts and won two Grade Ones in his two most recent starts. While his victory in Auteil was over three miles, he proved he could win over the minimum trip at this level with a polished display in the Morgiana at Punchestown; where the re-opposing Oscar Wells was four-and-a-half lengths back in second.
Willie Mullins’ grey is some 10lbs clear on official ratings, and in truth without the presence of Hurricane Fly this looks to be a fairly average renewal.

Horses like Oscar’s Wells and The Real Article still have some scope for improvement, but it would be a little surprising if either turned out to be a genuine Grade One horse over today’s trip. It’s possible that the latter didn’t quite last out the extra trip in the Hatton’s Grace but after failing to win the Galway Hurdle off a mark of 127 in the summer he looks up against it here.

The former was campaigned at further last term and perhaps doesn’t quite have the speed to win at the top level over two miles.
Perhaps the main danger is Dermot Weld’s four-year-old filly Unaccompanied, who receives 10lbs from her elders.

Her second to Zarkander in the Triumph Hurdle at last year’s Cheltenham festival now looks like very smart form given that horses subsequent performances. But despite the fact that she is likely to improve; her reappearance over hurdles in November saw her run only to her current mark so even allowing for a better effort today she should still come up short even on these terms.

Although clearly the price is not much to get excited about, the 11/10 currently available for Thousand Stars is more than fair given the standard of the field; and Ruby Walsh’s mount represents by far the likeliest winner.

Elsewhere on the card, at first glance the Pertemps Handicap Hurdle at 2.30 appears to be a bit of a minefield with 26 runners going to post. While many are exposed horses returning from chasing or simply completely out of form, Edward O’Grady’s Acapulco is one that is certainly well-handicapped.

Formerly with Aidan O’Brien on the flat, the seven-year-old was considered good enough to run in the Derby and the St Leger, and was far from disgraced in the latter finishing only four lengths behind the winner.

Clearly the horse has been difficult to train. There was a gap of a year-and-half between his last flat start and his first run over hurdles, while he was last seen running a very close second in a decent race in Navan 655 days ago. Normally this would off alarm bells and Acapulco would be one of the first horses to write off, but the fact that he has been nibbled at from an opening show of 20/1 last night to as short as 12/1 in places suggests he retains much of his old ability.

While he only won once from five attempts over hurdles, he finished runner-up four times and the form of those races dictates that his mark of 123 could vastly underestimate the son of Galileo provided he is as fit as the money that has come his way suggests.

Selections:
Thousand Stars 1pt win @ 11/10 generally
Acapulco 1pt win @ 16/1 Bet365, Ladbrokes

The Grade One over three miles has been won by such racing legends as Denman, Beef or Salmon and Best Mate in the past decade, and while the 2011 renewal doesn’t boast such a superstar it promises to be an informative renewal nonetheless.

Connections of the top two in the market, Quito de la Roque and Rubi Light, will feel that victory is essential if they are to emerge as a genuine contender for the Cheltenham Gold Cup in March.

The former, trained by Colm Murphy, is on a five race winning sequence and after taking in last month’s Champion Chase in Down Royal. Having looked beaten almost a mile out, the French-bred gelding used all his bravery and courage to grind his way past Sizing Europe and win by a length-and-a-half. His stamina is assured, and having won on every going from good to heavy the ground seems to hold no fears for him.

Rubi Light rapidly improved last term, and his third place in the Ryanair Chase hinted at further potential for improvement. While he has yet to race over three miles, Robert Hennessy’s charge won easily on heavy ground over two-and-a-half last time out in the John Durkan Chase; and showed no signs of stopping at the finish. At only six he is an improving horse, and his trainer believes he should come on for his most recent run following a setback in November.

Of the rest, Joncol has come third in two weaker renewals and it’s hard to see where the necessary improvement is going to come from. Magnimity could prove to be a nice horse this term, but winning a Grade One at this stage of the season on his first run back should prove too big an ask.

Quito de la Roque is clearly a very smart horse, but at 3/1 Rubi Light appeals as slightly better value given his progressive profile.

Elsewhere, there are no clear betting opportunities. The Fort Leney Novice Chase has attracted a weaker calibre of horse than usual. First Lieutenant heads the market, but at around 13/8 he is priced more on reputation rather than what he has achieved over fences. While clearly he possesses a lot of talent, having already been beaten by De Valira in a beginner’s chase and having been pulled up on his last start it’s hard to have much faith at a skinny price.

Last Instalment boasts some reasonable form, but the fact that Davy Russell chose to ride First Lieutenant instead is an obvious negative.

In the Woodiesdiy.com Christmas Hurdle Mourad has a great chance of reversing Hatton’s Grace form with Voler la Vedette. Under slightly more favourable terms and over a longer trip that Colm Murphy’s mare has never won over he may well be able to win the race for the second year running. The 6/4 on offer for the popular Ruby Walsh and Willie Mullins combination is a little short though, even if he is the most likely winner.

Selection

Rubi Light 2pt win @ 3/1 Ladbrokes

Colm Murphy’s stable star bids to land a hat-trick in the Grade One over an extended two miles, and comes in to the race in as good form as ever. Despite turning 11 in a matter of days, the former Queen Mother Champion Chase winner’s ability has shown no signs of waning and last month’s penalty defying victory over the re-opposing Noble Prince and Forpaddydeplasterer means he will prove very difficult to beat.

Apart from second-season chaser Saludos, Big Zeb has faced all his other rivals on at least one occasion over fences without tasting defeat. Indeed likely second-favourite Golden Silver has lost to the defending champion seven times in the last two years, and he looked to be well under-par earlier this month when winning the Hilly-Way rather fortunately following the last fence fall of his rival.

At one stage of his career good ground seemed vital to Big Zeb’s success, but in recent seasons he has shown an admirable versatility in that respect, and the jumping errors that once dogged him have become a thing of the past.

Everything in the form book says that off level weights Murphy’s horse must win. Nothing is ever certain in steeple-chasing, but it very difficult to see anything improving past Robbie Power’s mount; and he looks to be a safe enough bet even at 4/6.

The Grade One Paddy Power.com Future Champions Hurdle has attracted only five runners, due mainly to the presence of long odds-on favourite Sous Les Cieux. Willie Mullins’ French import has shown his class already this year with a top-level victory in the Royal Bond at Fairyhouse, but it’s worth remembering that the same trainer had a 1/4 shot turned over in the same race last year in the form of Zaidpour.

Lighting is unlikely to strike twice though, and this horse has had longer to recover from his previous race than Zaidpour was allowed. However, current odds of 1/2 are not particularly appealing given that novices are not the most consistent bunch – and the race is not much of a betting heat.

In terms of finding a healthy priced winner, the most intriguing runners lie in the card’s handicaps.

The Paddypower.com Handicap Hurdle could go the way of Cass Bligh. After falling on his debut over fences the seven-year-old now reverts to timber, and could still be on a competitive mark. While his last two performances in the spring were a little underwhelming, his run over course and distance in February resulted in a solid second to the subsequent improver Pittoni.

The fact that he was sent off at 2/1 for his chase debut despite the presence of a Grade One placed Willie Mullins hurdler suggests that a bold bid was expected, and if he returns here in the same form that he must have been showing at home then he must have a good chance.

The booking of Ruby Walsh is an obvious positive, and may suggest confidence in the selection.

The richly endowed Paddy Power Chase is always an excellent betting heat, and a very tough puzzle to solve. With 28 runners competing for over €100,000, many will have been laid out for the race and a case can be made for any number.

One that certainly appeals is David Pipe’s Sona Sasta. Having been a lowly-rated hurdler, the former point-to-point winner improved vastly for a switch to fences last season. A sixth-place finish behind Chicago Grey in the four mile Amateur riders’ race at the Cheltenham festival was a fair final run, and his recent second behind Welsh National fancy Le Beau Bai confirmed that he remains at a fair mark.

The English raider’s stamina for the three-miles on soft ground looks assured, and the fact that Pipe’s other Leopardstown runner Notus de la Tour ran so well behind Blackstairsmountain is further reason to believe that the trip across may not be in vain.

Selections:
Cass Bligh 1pt win @ 11/1 Paddy Power
Sona Sasta 1pt e/w @ 15/1 William Hill, or 12/1 generally.

Last term Kauto Star was foiled in his attempt to win the race for a record fifth time by the exciting Long Run, who went on to confirm superiority when claiming the Cheltenham Gold Cup in March. Kauto’s future was then cast in doubt after he was pulled up in the Punchestown equivalent. After calls to retire the iconic horse, the owner’s faith was repaid as he stormed home to record a fourth Betfair Chase victory last month; gaining revenge over Long Run in the process and setting up another intriguing rematch.

Long Run’s supporters will point to the fact that Paul Nicholl’s stable star was trained for the race while Nicky Henderson’s charge is expected to come on for run. It’s hard to forget how impressive the six-year-old was last term, and despite his loss he retains favouritism around the 11/8 mark.

The pair will not have it all between them though, and last year’s Arkle hero Captain Chris and prolific winner Master Minded both provide credible competition even if doubts remain over their ability to stay the three-miles.

Diamond Harry ran well for a long way on his reappearance after a year off before understandably tiring in the latter stages, and may well claim a place at a big price.

The clash between Binocular, Overturn and Rock on Ruby in the Christmas Hurdle is a trappy one. Binocular was well held by Overturn on their last meeting, while that horse is running his fourth race in a month and may not be quite at his best as a result. Rock On Ruby may not like the return to two-miles on a speed track, so all the main protagonists have their own problems to overcome.

At home, Leopardstown kicks off its Christmas festival with probably their most low-key day of the four.

The centrepiece of the card is the Racing Post Novices’ Chase where Bog Warrior will look to add to his outstanding reputation after his recent 31-length success, with Willy Mullins’ Blackstairsmountain well-fancied by many to chase him home.

A more interesting betting proposition may be Donnas Palm in the Racing Post All You Need For Irish Racing Handicap Chase. At one point Noel Meade’s seven-year-old was rated 161 over hurdles, and his current chasing mark of 133 therefore looks to give him an excellent chance on his handicap debut.

 Nap of the Day

 Bog Warrior is clearly a very promising talent and deserves his place at the head of the market in the Racing Post Novice Chase at Leopardstown. However, following his wide-margin win in a Grade Two at Fairyhouse last time out the layers have taken no chances; and the horse doesn’t represent much value at odds-on.

An interesting alternative to the Tony Martin trained horse is David Pipe’s Notus de la Tour. A smart performer over the smaller obstacles, the five-year-old recorded two facile victories over fences before losing his unbeaten record in that sphere last time out at Exeter.

That performance was arguably as impressive as his wins however, and he travelled well throughout before tiring in the final few furlongs. The fact that he ran so admirably while conceding 8lbs to the former Grade One winning hurdler Walkon, and the subsequent Grade Two winning Zaynar; means he comes here with a very realistic chance should the favourite underperform.

The slight drop back in trip should help too, and if jumps as well as he did the last day then the 9/1 currently available looks too big in what doesn’t look a vintage renewal.

Each -Way

 While it might seems like an unusual race to pick a longshot in given the undoubted talent possessed by those at the top of the market, Mr Moonshine does appeal at 20/1 in the Feltham Novices’ Chase at Kempton.

Grand Crus, Bobs Worth and Silviniaco Conti all achieved a great deal more over hurdles than the selection, but Mr Moonshine’s form over fences is more or less on a par with anything so far shown by his more illustrious rivals. Having beaten a well-regarded Paul Nicholls horses in his second chase start Sue Smith’s charge gave a good account of himself in the Peterborough Chase in open company.

While ultimately he finished 15 lengths adrift of winner Gauvain, the fact that he finished only 11 lengths adrift of the second placed and 166-rated Somersby off level weights is encouraging. The step-up in trip may help too, with all of Moonshine’s best form over hurdles coming around the three-mile mark.

If the gelding hailed from a more fashionable ward it’s likely that he would be around half his current price.

In recent years I have grown to accept the fact that every time I enjoy a few pints with my friends the initial friendly banter will inevitably end in a heated football argument.

At one point the intensity of the debates caused some consternation in the group and led to lengthy silences and fraught relationships, but in time we’ve learned to adopt an “all is fair in love and war” policy and leave our differences aside post-argument or in time for the next round. So the fact that the camp split in two this weekend over a throwaway comment was no surprise – except this time it concerned tennis of all things.

I have next to no interest in the sport; it just seems a little posh and boring. The ball is fired over the net and then hit equally hard back seemingly endlessly without much variation. I often wondered why they didn’t throw in the odd “joke” ball every few services, one that exploded or had a crazy bounce or something to at least inject a bit of life into it. So why did I find myself passionately arguing about whether Nadal or Federer was the more complete player, a debate my friends and I were hopelessly under-educated to conclusively decide? Because we’ve become the worst form of spoofers – the nomadic sports fan.

The nomadic fan is the product of television scheduling, and moves not from place to place but rather sport to sport. If nomads travel around looking for food and opportunity, then the nomadic sports fan searches the channels for the most high-profile sporting events and then immerses him or herself in it in an attempt to appear an expert down the pub, or impress their followers on twitter. It’s outrageously simple to pull off. If Wimbledon is the big draw in town then watch a preview or two, wiki the leading principles for some extra novelty info (so it seems as if you’ve been following them their entire career) and then sit back and listen carefully to what’s said in the post match analyse so you can reproduce it almost word-for-word later that evening.

Of course there are pitfalls. A few days of this and you’ll appear genuinely knowledgeable and thoughtful, but overdo it and suspicion will be aroused. If you encounter a genuine fan the best bet is to retreat before elaboration is needed. Also there’s always the chance that a fellow spoofer will have viewed rival analysis and can use his own borrowed arguments to make your own seem foolish and naive. But overall this approach is a lot easier that actually going to hassle of having to learn the nuances of a sport and formulating your own opinions.

The true beauty of the nomadic approach is that before too long you have a chance to move on to the next sport. If your friends wonder where all this tennis interest is coming from, it will soon be forgotten when the Tour de France starts and you can begin discussing your fancies and the tactics best used in the mountain challenges.

When you think about it all makes sense. Why is it that the know-it-all in work always seems to want to talk darts every Christmas, or has an opinion on John Higgins’ safety game late April each year? Why does he think Declan Kidney should go in the spring, that Ruby Walsh is the greatest jockey of them all each March, and that the Americans can’t handle the links in July? Because it’s easy to pick up a few impressive sound-bites when you’re sitting in front of the box all day.

At the end of the day it’s sheer fraud, but what can you do –sitting there silent as debate rages on around you or admitting you’re out of your depth just doesn’t pass the night the same does it?

But having said that; I really can’t wait for the football to start back again so at the very least I can start arguments over points that I’ve genuinely raised myself. There’s only so many more times I can tell the lads down the local that Nadal is vulnerable to a serve and volley game before I won’t be able to look at myself in the mirror.